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Primera A
Chico—Fortaleza FC
· Estadio La Independencia
Final score
0–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
82%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 82% means the opposite outcome happens about 18% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CHI
- 33%
- Draw
- 30%
- FOR
- 37%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Fortaleza FC's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Chico takes 1.44 points per game at home, the opponent 0.75 away
- Chico takes 1.44 points per game at home against 0.3 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Chico's defence: tighter than only ~11% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Chico — Fortaleza FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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