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Super League
Chengdu Better City—Shanghai Shenhua
· Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park
Final score
4–5
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
57%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CHE
- 45%
- Draw
- 26%
- SHA
- 29%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Chengdu Better City's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Shanghai Shenhua has lost 4 of its last 6
- Chengdu Better City scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Shanghai Shenhua's attack: better than ~86% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Chengdu Better City — Shanghai Shenhua
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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