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Liga MX
CF Pachuca—Guadalajara Chivas
· Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAC
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- GUA
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 11 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- CF Pachuca has lost 4 of its last 6
- Guadalajara Chivas has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of CF Pachuca — Guadalajara Chivas
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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