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Serie B
Catanzaro—Carrarese
· Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
57%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CAT
- 53%
- Draw
- 25%
- CAR
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Catanzaro's attack: better than ~83% of the teams in the league
- Catanzaro takes 1.75 points per game at home, the opponent 0.7 away
- Catanzaro takes 1.75 points per game at home against 1.07 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- 3 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Carrarese takes 1.63 points per game at home against 0.7 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Catanzaro — Carrarese
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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