Lire cette analyse en français
Segunda División
Castellón—Tenerife
· Estadio Municipal de Castalia
What the model reads
45%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 45% means the opposite outcome happens about 55% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CAS
- 45%
- Draw
- 28%
- TEN
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Castellón's attack: better than ~90% of the teams in the league
- Castellón takes 1.97 points per game at home, the opponent 1.38 away
- Castellón takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1.19 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Tenerife has won 3 of the last 5 meetings
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Castellón — Tenerife
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.