Lire cette analyse en français
Serie B
Carrarese—Mantova
· Stadio dei Marmi
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
56%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CAR
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- MAN
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Mantova's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Carrarese takes 1.6 points per game at home, the opponent 0.79 away
- Carrarese takes 1.6 points per game at home against 0.75 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- 3 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Mantova takes 1.68 points per game at home against 0.79 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Carrarese — Mantova
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.