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Ligue 1
CA Bizertin—AS Marsa
· Stade 15 Octobre
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
72%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 72% means the opposite outcome happens about 28% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CAB
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- ASM
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- AS Marsa's defence: tighter than only ~28% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- CA Bizertin takes 1.94 points per game at home, the opponent 0.71 away
What could mislead us
- 3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of CA Bizertin — AS Marsa
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.