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Championship
Burnley—Derby
· Turf Moor
What the model reads
65%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 65% means the opposite outcome happens about 35% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BUR
- 65%
- Draw
- 22%
- DER
- 13%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 56% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Derby has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Burnley's defence: tighter than only ~2% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 3 draws in the last 5 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Burnley — Derby
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.