Lire cette analyse en français
Segunda División
Burgos—AD Ceuta FC
· —
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BUR
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- AD
- 20%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 56% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- AD Ceuta FC's defence: tighter than only ~21% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Burgos takes 1.77 points per game at home, the opponent 0.96 away
- Burgos has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- AD Ceuta FC takes 1.82 points per game at home against 0.96 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Burgos — AD Ceuta FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.