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Primera A
Bucaramanga—Deportivo Pasto
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What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BUC
- 54%
- Draw
- 27%
- PAS
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Bucaramanga's attack: better than ~80% of the teams in the league
- Deportivo Pasto's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Bucaramanga takes 1.91 points per game at home, the opponent 0.69 away
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Bucaramanga — Deportivo Pasto
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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