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Serie A
Botafogo—Gremio
· Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BOT
- 44%
- Draw
- 27%
- GRE
- 29%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Botafogo's attack: better than ~90% of the teams in the league
- Botafogo takes 1.8 points per game at home, the opponent 0.68 away
- Botafogo scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Gremio takes 1.81 points per game at home against 0.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Botafogo — Gremio
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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