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UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Borussia Dortmund—Villarreal
· Signal Iduna Park
Final score
3–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DOR
- 66%
- Draw
- 20%
- VIL
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Borussia Dortmund's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Villarreal's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Borussia Dortmund takes 2.38 points per game at home, the opponent 1.3 away
What could mislead us
- Villarreal's attack: better than ~83% of the teams in the league
- Borussia Dortmund has 14 declared absences
The full analysis of Borussia Dortmund — Villarreal
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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