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Championship
Bolton—West Ham
· Toughsheet Community Stadium
Final score
2–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
75%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BOL
- 22%
- Draw
- 25%
- WES
- 53%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- West Ham's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- West Ham has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Bolton has 6 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Bolton — West Ham
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.