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UEFA Europa League · Play-offs
Beşiktaş—Marseille
· Besiktas Park
What the model reads
59%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BES
- 44%
- Draw
- 24%
- MAR
- 32%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Beşiktaş's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- Beşiktaş takes 1.93 points per game at home, the opponent 1.21 away
- Beşiktaş has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Marseille's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Marseille takes 2.26 points per game at home against 1.21 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Beşiktaş — Marseille
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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