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Primeira Liga
Benfica—GIL Vicente
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What the model reads
78%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BEN
- 78%
- Draw
- 14%
- VIC
- 8%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Benfica's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Benfica takes 2.21 points per game at home, the opponent 1.22 away
- Benfica has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- On this league, our verified analyses held 59% for 71% announced (over 22): read the probability with caution.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Benfica — GIL Vicente
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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