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Primeira Liga
Benfica—Estoril
· Estádio da Luz
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
83%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BEN
- 83%
- Draw
- 11%
- EST
- 6%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Benfica's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Estoril's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Benfica takes 2.18 points per game at home, the opponent 1.04 away
What could mislead us
- Estoril's attack: better than ~76% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Benfica — Estoril
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.