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Super League
Beijing Guoan—Yunnan Yukun
· Beijing Workers' Stadium
Final score
3–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
79%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BEI
- 64%
- Draw
- 18%
- YUN
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Beijing Guoan's attack: better than ~94% of the teams in the league
- Yunnan Yukun's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Beijing Guoan takes 1.92 points per game at home, the opponent 0.96 away
What could mislead us
- Yunnan Yukun takes 1.96 points per game at home against 0.96 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Beijing Guoan — Yunnan Yukun
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.