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UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Bayern München—Bodo/Glimt
· Allianz Arena
Final score
5–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
84%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 84% means the opposite outcome happens about 16% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BAY
- 73%
- Draw
- 14%
- BOD
- 13%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 32% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Bayern München's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Bayern München takes 2.56 points per game at home, the opponent 1.97 away
- Bodo/Glimt has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Bodo/Glimt's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Bayern München has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of Bayern München — Bodo/Glimt
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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