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UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Barcelona—Feyenoord
· Spotify Camp Nou
Final score
5–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
86%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 86% means the opposite outcome happens about 14% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BAR
- 86%
- Draw
- 9%
- FEY
- 5%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 34% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Barcelona's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Barcelona takes 2.65 points per game at home, the opponent 1.62 away
- Feyenoord has 12 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Feyenoord's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Barcelona has 6 declared absences
The full analysis of Barcelona — Feyenoord
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.