Lire cette analyse en français
Premier League
Baltika—Rubin
· Rostec Arena
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BAL
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- RUB
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 62% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Baltika takes 1.71 points per game at home, the opponent 0.95 away
- Rubin has 4 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Baltika has 6 declared absences
- Rubin takes 2 points per game at home against 0.95 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Baltika — Rubin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.