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Serie B
Avellino—Palermo
· Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
What the model reads
53%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AVE
- 28%
- Draw
- 29%
- PAL
- 43%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Avellino takes 1.67 points per game at home against 0.77 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Palermo's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Avellino's defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Avellino — Palermo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.