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Major League Soccer
Austin—San Diego
· Q2 Stadium
What the model reads
59%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AUS
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- SAN
- 42%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Austin takes 1.54 points per game at home against 0.89 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- San Diego's attack: better than ~87% of the teams in the league
- Austin's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Austin — San Diego
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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