Lire cette analyse en français
Major League Soccer
Austin—Philadelphia Union
· Q2 Stadium
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
49%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 49% means the opposite outcome happens about 51% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AUS
- 24%
- Draw
- 27%
- PHI
- 49%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Philadelphia Union has 6 declared absences
- Austin takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.86 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Austin's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Philadelphia Union takes 1.89 points per game at home against 1.22 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Austin — Philadelphia Union
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.