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Liga MX
Atletico San Luis—Necaxa
· Estadio Libertad Financiera
What the model reads
58%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ASL
- 42%
- Draw
- 26%
- NEC
- 32%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Necaxa's defence: tighter than only ~31% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Necaxa concedes 2.1 goals per game away
What could mislead us
- Necaxa has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Atletico San Luis — Necaxa
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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