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Serie A
Atletico Paranaense—Fluminense
· Arena da Baixada
Final score
3–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ATL
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- FLU
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 13 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Fluminense has 12 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Atletico Paranaense has 8 declared absences
- Fluminense takes 1.53 points per game at home against 0.89 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Atletico Paranaense — Fluminense
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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