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Serie A
Atletico Paranaense—Bahia
· Arena da Baixada
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ATL
- 51%
- Draw
- 26%
- BAH
- 23%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Atletico Paranaense's attack: better than ~85% of the teams in the league
- Atletico Paranaense takes 2.15 points per game at home, the opponent 1.1 away
- Atletico Paranaense takes 2.15 points per game at home against 1.42 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Bahia takes 2.06 points per game at home against 1.1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Bahia has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Atletico Paranaense — Bahia
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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