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Serie A
Atletico-MG—Vitoria
· Arena MRV
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
63%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 63% means the opposite outcome happens about 37% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ATL
- 63%
- Draw
- 21%
- VIT
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 14 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Vitoria's defence: tighter than only ~33% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Atletico-MG takes 1.86 points per game at home, the opponent 0.52 away
- Vitoria has 18 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Atletico-MG has 16 declared absences
- Vitoria takes 1.93 points per game at home against 0.52 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Atletico-MG — Vitoria
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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