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Serie A
Atletico-MG—Chapecoense-sc
· MRV Arena
What the model reads
66%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ATL
- 66%
- Draw
- 20%
- CHA
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Chapecoense-sc's defence: tighter than only ~2% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Atletico-MG takes 1.9 points per game at home, the opponent 0.25 away
- Atletico-MG takes 1.9 points per game at home against 0.84 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Chapecoense-sc takes 0.92 points per game at home against 0.25 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Atletico-MG — Chapecoense-sc
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.