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Major League Soccer
Atlanta United FC—Orlando City SC
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Final score
2–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
59%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ATL
- 56%
- Draw
- 22%
- ORL
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Orlando City SC's defence: tighter than only ~12% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Orlando City SC has 6 declared absences
- Orlando City SC concedes 2.3 goals per game away
What could mislead us
- Orlando City SC's attack: better than ~72% of the teams in the league
- Atlanta United FC's defence: tighter than only ~15% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Atlanta United FC — Orlando City SC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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