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La Liga
Athletic Club—Sevilla
· San Mamés
Final score
1–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
49%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 49% means the opposite outcome happens about 51% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BIL
- 49%
- Draw
- 24%
- SEV
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Sevilla's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Athletic Club takes 1.64 points per game at home, the opponent 0.85 away
- Sevilla has 8 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Athletic Club has 12 declared absences
- Athletic Club has lost 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Athletic Club — Sevilla
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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