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La Liga
Athletic Club—Alaves
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What the model reads
55%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 55% means the opposite outcome happens about 45% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BIL
- 55%
- Draw
- 27%
- ALA
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 60% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Athletic Club has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Athletic Club's defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Athletic Club — Alaves
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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