Lire cette analyse en français
Premier League
Aston Villa—Arsenal
· Villa Park
Final score
0–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
50%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 50% means the opposite outcome happens about 50% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AST
- 26%
- Draw
- 25%
- ARS
- 49%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Aston Villa's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- Arsenal has 10 declared absences
- Aston Villa takes 2.17 points per game at home against 1.5 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Arsenal's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Aston Villa has 12 declared absences
The full analysis of Aston Villa — Arsenal
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.