Lire cette analyse en français
Super League 1
Asteras Tripolis—AEK Athens FC
· Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium
What the model reads
53%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AST
- 19%
- Draw
- 28%
- AEK
- 53%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- AEK Athens FC's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- Asteras Tripolis's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Asteras Tripolis — AEK Athens FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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