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Ligue 1
AS Marsa—ES Sahel
· Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
53%Away clean sheet
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ASM
- 19%
- Draw
- 29%
- ESS
- 52%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 67% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- AS Marsa takes 1.35 points per game at home against 0.67 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- ES Sahel has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- ES Sahel's attack: better than ~72% of the teams in the league
- AS Marsa's defence: tighter than only ~28% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of AS Marsa — ES Sahel
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.