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Primeira Liga
Arouca—Santa Clara
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What the model reads
58%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ARO
- 43%
- Draw
- 27%
- SAN
- 30%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Arouca takes 1.63 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
- Arouca takes 1.63 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Arouca has won 5 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Arouca's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- On this league, our verified analyses held 59% for 71% announced (over 22): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Arouca — Santa Clara
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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