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Liga Profesional Argentina
Argentinos JRS—Gimnasia L.P.
· Estadio Diego Armando Maradona
What the model reads
67%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ARG
- 46%
- Draw
- 31%
- GIM
- 23%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 63% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Argentinos JRS's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Gimnasia L.P.'s defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Argentinos JRS takes 2.58 points per game at home, the opponent 1.58 away
What could mislead us
- Gimnasia L.P. has won 4 of its last 6
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Argentinos JRS — Gimnasia L.P.
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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