Lire cette analyse en français
Primera A
America de Cali—Deportivo Pasto
· —
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AME
- 56%
- Draw
- 27%
- PAS
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 60% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Deportivo Pasto's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- America de Cali takes 2.18 points per game at home, the opponent 0.72 away
- America de Cali takes 2.18 points per game at home against 1.18 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
- On this league, our verified analyses held 50% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of America de Cali — Deportivo Pasto
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.