Lire cette analyse en français
Primera A
America de Cali—Alianza Valledupar
· Olimpico Pascual Guerrero
Final score
3–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AME
- 61%
- Draw
- 24%
- ALI
- 15%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 21 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 58% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- America de Cali takes 2.14 points per game at home, the opponent 0.53 away
- America de Cali takes 2.14 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- America de Cali has won 7 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Alianza Valledupar takes 1.21 points per game at home against 0.53 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of America de Cali — Alianza Valledupar
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.