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Primeira Liga
Alverca—Rio Ave
· FC Alverca Sports Complex
What the model reads
37%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 37% means the opposite outcome happens about 63% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ALV
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- RIO
- 36%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Rio Ave's defence: tighter than only ~8% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Alverca takes 1.47 points per game at home against 0.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Rio Ave has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- 2 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- On this league, our verified analyses held 59% for 71% announced (over 22): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Alverca — Rio Ave
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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