Lire cette analyse en français
Primera A
Alianza Valledupar—Junior
· Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ALI
- 30%
- Draw
- 28%
- JUN
- 42%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Junior has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Junior's attack: better than ~89% of the teams in the league
- Alianza Valledupar's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Alianza Valledupar — Junior
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.