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Liga Profesional Argentina
Aldosivi—Atletico Tucuman
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What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ALD
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- TUC
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Atletico Tucuman's defence: tighter than only ~31% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Aldosivi takes 1.18 points per game at home, the opponent 0.5 away
- Aldosivi takes 1.18 points per game at home against 0.52 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Aldosivi's defence: tighter than only ~14% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 3 draws in the last 6 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Aldosivi — Atletico Tucuman
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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