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Premier League
AL Masry—Smouha SC
· Borg El Arab Stadium
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
68%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MAS
- 42%
- Draw
- 35%
- SMO
- 23%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- AL Masry's attack: better than ~79% of the teams in the league
- AL Masry takes 1.78 points per game at home, the opponent 1.06 away
- Smouha SC has lost 6 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- AL Masry's defence: tighter than only ~26% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of AL Masry — Smouha SC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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