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Premier League
AL Masry—Al Ittihad
· Borg El Arab Stadium
What the model reads
59%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MAS
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- ETT
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- AL Masry's attack: better than ~79% of the teams in the league
- Al Ittihad's defence: tighter than only ~31% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- AL Masry takes 1.68 points per game at home, the opponent 0.83 away
What could mislead us
- AL Masry's defence: tighter than only ~26% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of AL Masry — Al Ittihad
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.