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Pro League
Al-Hilal Saudi FC—Al-Ahli Jeddah
· Kingdom Arena
Final score
3–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
60%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 60% means the opposite outcome happens about 40% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- HIL
- 57%
- Draw
- 22%
- AHL
- 21%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 25 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC takes 2.41 points per game at home, the opponent 1.82 away
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores 3.2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Ahli Jeddah
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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