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Ajax—Willem II
· Johan Cruijff Arena
What the model reads
84%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 84% means the opposite outcome happens about 16% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AJA
- 84%
- Draw
- 11%
- WIL
- 5%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Ajax's attack: better than ~74% of the teams in the league
- Willem II's defence: tighter than only ~12% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Ajax takes 1.68 points per game at home, the opponent 0.38 away
What could mislead us
- Ajax has 6 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Ajax — Willem II
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.