Lire cette analyse en français
Eredivisie
Ajax—PSV Eindhoven
· Johan Cruijff Arena
Final score
1–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AJA
- 48%
- Draw
- 24%
- PSV
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 40% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- PSV Eindhoven has 8 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Ajax has 6 declared absences
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Ajax — PSV Eindhoven
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.