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Allsvenskan
AIK Stockholm—Vasteras SK FK
· Strawberry Arena
Final score
1–4
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AIK
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- VAS
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- AIK Stockholm's attack: better than ~71% of the teams in the league
- Vasteras SK FK's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Vasteras SK FK has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- AIK Stockholm has 18 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of AIK Stockholm — Vasteras SK FK
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.