Lire cette analyse en français
Primera A
Águilas Doradas—Deportivo Pereira
· Estadio Cincuentenario
What the model reads
50%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 50% means the opposite outcome happens about 50% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ITA
- 50%
- Draw
- 26%
- PER
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Deportivo Pereira's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Águilas Doradas takes 1.5 points per game at home, the opponent 0.48 away
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- On this league, our verified analyses held 50% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Águilas Doradas — Deportivo Pereira
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.