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UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
AEK Athens FC—Lask Linz
· Allwyn Arena
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- AEK
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- LAS
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- AEK Athens FC's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- AEK Athens FC takes 2.25 points per game at home, the opponent 1.65 away
- AEK Athens FC takes 2.25 points per game at home against 1.55 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Lask Linz's attack: better than ~96% of the teams in the league
- Lask Linz takes 2.27 points per game at home against 1.65 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of AEK Athens FC — Lask Linz
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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