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Bundesliga
1. FC Köln—Werder Bremen
· RheinEnergieStadion
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
60%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 60% means the opposite outcome happens about 40% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- KOL
- 42%
- Draw
- 27%
- WER
- 31%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Werder Bremen has 10 declared absences
- Werder Bremen has lost 4 of its last 6
- 1. FC Köln scores 1.8 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- 1. FC Köln's defence: tighter than only ~31% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of 1. FC Köln — Werder Bremen
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.